CIA Director William Burns suggested that China would carefully study Russia’s failures in Ukraine for its possible invasion of Taiwan.
Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, Burns discussed the United States’ two greatest rival nations.
“I think our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it,” he said. “If there’s one lesson I think they may be drawing from Putin’s experience in Ukraine, it’s that you don’t achieve quick, decisive victories with overwhelming force.”
He paid particular attention to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including Putin’s mentality and the possible factors that contributed to his country’s many failures to quickly and decisively win the conflict, and what lessons China might learn from the experience as it looks toward a possible Taiwan invasion.
“I wouldn’t underestimate President Xi’s determination to assert China’s control over Taiwan,” Burns said. “He’s determined to ensure his military has the capability to undertake such an action should he decide to move in that direction.”
The Russian invasion of Ukraine proved a “strategic failure” for Putin, with Burns revealing that he believed the latest U.S. intelligence estimates would indicate around 15,000 Russian troops killed and “maybe three times” as many troops wounded.
“The Ukrainians have suffered as well, probably a little less than that, but significant casualties is the big picture,” he said. “Russia is planning to dig in and keep hammering Ukraine and believe that when winter comes and the fuel costs are so high on Europe, that NATO solidarity will weaken.”
Just hours after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine back in February, nine Chinese aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense zone, prompting the country to scramble its air force to monitor further Chinese military activity.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen called for increased vigilance of military activities in response to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, fearing that China might try to take advantage to move on the island.
The Biden administration has recently committed more diplomatic and security resources to Taiwan in its new U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, as the threat of China invading Taiwan was “real and dangerous.”
